tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-67686499823297936512024-02-20T13:26:46.431-08:00The Little SkepticGeologists know the climate changes but sadly it seems politicians and the press are more willing to trust the results of incomplete computer models. Climate models are useful but while they are in an early stage of development its best to take a skeptical view of their output.the little skeptichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16717535560369820057noreply@blogger.comBlogger58125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6768649982329793651.post-64398406286491075062021-05-16T20:16:00.002-07:002021-05-16T20:16:13.656-07:00Common sense Left on the cutting room floor<p> This letter left on the floor by The Oz editor.... </p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "times classic text"; font-size: 18px;">As a society we tolerate a certain number of deaths from a wide range of causes to trade off for other benefits. Motor vehicle accidents being a good example. We could bring MVA deaths to near zero by implementing 40 kmh speed limits and vehicle tracking. But we tolerate 1000 deaths per annum for the convenience and benefits of speed. Covid should not be any different. At a time when most of the vulnerable are vaccinated and the risk of people dying from the virus are substantially decreased we should be looking at removing ALL restrictions rather than imposing new ones.</span></p>the little skeptichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16717535560369820057noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6768649982329793651.post-38631762504330123322017-08-08T18:39:00.003-07:002017-08-08T18:39:32.959-07:00The Rock: if you haven't climbed it you haven't visitedRecent dead letter at the SMH:<br />
<br />Dear Editor,<br /><br />The climb to the top of Uluru affords one a chance to soak in the geology, geomorphology and environment of this remarkable area. Unfortunately pandering to stone age beliefs has threatened the climb for some time and sadly continues to do so, replete with specious comparisons with climbing man made religious structures (Uluru: to climb or not to climb? 7/8/2017). It may surprise many but climbing the bell towers of many christian churches is a very common tourist practise in Europe that usually comes with a small fee. I understand that you can even climb the Bell Tower at St Mary's if you know the right person. <br /><br />Climbing the rock is an act that commemorates our collective defeat over primitive mysticism and is a tribute to science and modernity. Not climbing on the grounds that the rock is sacred in some way is an act of wilful ignorance, tantamount to turning your back on the age of enlightenment. Dream time tales, along with other religious fantasies, may make for fine bedtime morality lessons, but they have no role in restricting access to our shared natural heritage. If you haven't climbed it, you haven't really visited it.
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the little skeptichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16717535560369820057noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6768649982329793651.post-70972165333754675692015-01-28T14:58:00.003-08:002015-01-28T14:58:24.271-08:00Back to the 1800sLetter to The Australian on the cutting room floor... <br />
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Dear Editor,<br />New research (Climate change to cause twice as many
severe floods in Australia, 27/1) indicates we can expect "almost twice
as many severe floods this century like the ones that devastated
southeast Queensland four years ago". Looking over the Bureau of
Meteorology's charts of flood height for the Brisbane River there were 9
major flood events between 1840 and 1940, and just 2 between 1940 and
2014. Based on this it seems the climate of the future will be a thing
of the past. <br /><br /><a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/flood/fld_history/brisbane_history.shtml" target="_blank">http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/<wbr></wbr>flood/fld_history/brisbane_<wbr></wbr>history.shtml</a>the little skeptichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16717535560369820057noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6768649982329793651.post-5000026884531067482014-09-10T17:53:00.001-07:002014-09-10T17:53:57.580-07:00Confirmation bias preferred at the Sydney Morning HeraldPity a once great paper has gone to rubbish. Our well crafted letter tossed into the editor's bin in favour of crap.<br />
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Professional scientists often request assistance from citizen scientists. However when a group of "amateurs", including retired engineers and scientists find problems with mainstream science, for example w<span style="font-family: arial, sans-serif;">ith BOM's system of temperature homogenization or errors in palaeoclimate reconstructions made famous by the hockey stick saga, we see their contributions attacked, not by looking at the evidence they present, but by resorting to personal attacks, name calling and appeals to authority (</span><span style="color: black; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 17.0240001678467px;">Climate change deniers raise the heat on the Bureau of Meteorology, 10/9). </span></div>
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It is sad that many professional scientists are unable to work constructively with a veritable army of enthusiastic highly skilled volunteers interested in making substantial contributions to science. It seems these contributions are only appreciated when they confirm the researchers' preferred models. When they show the opposite, the shudders of authority go up and professional heads get buried in the sand. It's time researchers showed more maturity and humility and engaged with an interested public rather than treating them like pariahs.</div>
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<br />the little skeptichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16717535560369820057noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6768649982329793651.post-39706464237918254192014-01-16T17:21:00.000-08:002014-01-16T17:21:45.655-08:00The climate bookieA letter in the <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/letters/betting-on-science-is-a-disservice-to-community/story-fn558imw-1226803561027">Oz today</a> but most of it went missing, here's the full text:<br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">With respect to climate science Brian Schmidt claims to have "considerable knowledge of the science at hand" yet in his proposed bet with Maurice Newman he is unwilling to put a figure on the amount of warming he expects in 20 years. He would be aware that the real debate is not about whether it will warm or not, but the amount of warming, and its effect. Based on the IPCC's current report the range for future warming based on estimates of the climate's sensitivity to CO2 is quite broad and implies anything from inconvenience to catastrophe. With his "considerable knowledge" I would have thought Dr Schmidt would have been confident enough in the science to nominate a figure against which Mr Newman could bet rather than take him for a mug punter.</span>the little skeptichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16717535560369820057noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6768649982329793651.post-64032629798880136492013-04-29T03:12:00.004-07:002013-04-29T03:13:17.486-07:00The slow roast<span style="color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">Left on the cutting room floor at the Sydney Morning Herald...</span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif;" /></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">With CO2 about to breach the 400ppm barrier and likely to continue </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">rising over the coming decades (Greenhouse gas levels highest in 3M </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">years, 29/4) I'm sure readers will be heartened to learn that recent </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">estimates of the climate's sensitivity to this greenhouse gas are </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">lower than previously thought (see link below*). Based on current best </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">estimates (1.6 degrees C per doubling) we are likely to experience </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">further warming of about 0.8 degrees C by the end of the century. The </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">lower climate sensitivity goes some way to explain why the IPCC's </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">climate models have failed to forecast the current hiatus in global </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">temperatures since 1998 despite massively increasing CO2 emissions.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">This slow roast hardly represents what former PM Rudd called "the </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">greatest moral, economic and environmental challenge of our </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">generation". It also pulls the rug from under the feet of ardent </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">alarmists like Clive Hamilton who has moved from calls to suspend </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">democracy to save the planet, to supporting civil disobedience against </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">the coal industry (whatever that entails). Ironically, an industry </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">that through its taxes helps fund Hamilton's generous salary.</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">*See </span><a href="http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00473.1" style="background-color: white; color: #1155cc; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" target="_blank">http://journals.ametsoc.org/<wbr></wbr>doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-<wbr></wbr>00473.1</a><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">Lewis N., 2013. An objective Bayesian, improved approach for applying</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">optimal fingerprint techniques to estimate climate sensitivity.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">Journal of Climate 2013 ; e-View</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">doi: </span><a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00473.1" style="background-color: white; color: #1155cc; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" target="_blank">http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/<wbr></wbr>JCLI-D-12-00473.1</a>the little skeptichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16717535560369820057noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6768649982329793651.post-32036622689950918302012-02-29T07:59:00.002-08:002012-02-29T08:03:08.189-08:00Activist Sherpa's views preferred over peer reviewed science<span style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.917969); color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">From the cutting room floor at The Australian...</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.917969); color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">Dear Editor,</span><br />
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Chris Roylance (Letters, 29/2) finds some irony in Des Moore's call for an independent inquiry into the science of climate change by citing the claims of a sherpa. While first hand experience and anecdotal evidence of decreasing snowfall at the top of the world are worth considering, recent satellite data has revealed "<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px; text-align: left;"><i>the world's greatest snowcapped peaks lost no ice at all over the past 10 years</i><b> </b></span>(<a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/health-science/highest-peaks-have-cut-no-ice-in-past-10-years/story-e6frg8y6-1226267186824">Highest peaks have cut no ice in past 10 years</a>, 10/2/12). Claims that Mt Everest is becoming more treacherous to climb are also little difficult to believe when this newspaper reported just 2 years ago that "<i>An estimated 200 people reached the summit on Sunday, the busiest day, when 13-year-old American Jordan Romero became the youngest person ever to climb Everest, tackling the mountain from the quieter north side.</i>" (<a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/breaking-news/climate-change-ups-everest-danger/story-fn3dxity-1225871350665">Climate change ups Everest danger</a>, 26/5/2010). Interesting the same sherpa Chris Roylance relies on to rebuke Des Moore, featured in that story too, making the same claims about missing ice after making a record 20th ascent of the world's highest peak; a record your report yesterday indicates he has since broken (<a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/mount-everest-perilous-as-snows-vanish/story-e6frg6so-1226283233911">Mount Everest perilous as snows vanish</a>, 28/2). Yes the ironies are there for all to see. But that believers in a climate catastrophe now rely on the anecdotal claims of an activist sherpa over the evidence offered by peer reviewed science is the greatest irony of all. </div>the little skeptichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16717535560369820057noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6768649982329793651.post-586273465342709832012-02-07T12:34:00.000-08:002012-02-07T12:34:51.392-08:00Cherry Picking the NewsCherry Picking the weather: anyone can do it:<br />
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<b>The IPCC </b>Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. (<a href="http://ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/images/uploads/IPCC_SREX_slide_deck.pdf">Presentation Slideshow</a>, p.8).<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZjTCUQ4Q0XbueM3sfiOERDZpI2axYC6OE3ylCRBvqMtn2qNOc3n-ZDX5n3a_lAR2YSwXblKFxBX3Rj6Fr2NdUPUNx1vzbkGafv4jSP-HohtvRmWI6y5prHUxz0XS8D4MnaJhQhNycoCI/s1600/ipcc+whitewash1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZjTCUQ4Q0XbueM3sfiOERDZpI2axYC6OE3ylCRBvqMtn2qNOc3n-ZDX5n3a_lAR2YSwXblKFxBX3Rj6Fr2NdUPUNx1vzbkGafv4jSP-HohtvRmWI6y5prHUxz0XS8D4MnaJhQhNycoCI/s400/ipcc+whitewash1.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b>The Little Skeptic</b><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiGf7UWVfC_QLvcfG6NSniLSzSkqpM7FIBlK7T0xLNYzo_1s0AwnaTMLPZfpatzEz7zEdm00rHRNJDfbmswtxTmumbBDLAQUi_MAg4cUTNeEk9CINCKBjwRxFnJqCWUgH2z8r8MD9bHok/s1600/ipcc+whitewash2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiGf7UWVfC_QLvcfG6NSniLSzSkqpM7FIBlK7T0xLNYzo_1s0AwnaTMLPZfpatzEz7zEdm00rHRNJDfbmswtxTmumbBDLAQUi_MAg4cUTNeEk9CINCKBjwRxFnJqCWUgH2z8r8MD9bHok/s400/ipcc+whitewash2.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">Links to newspaper articles all from the first decade of the 20th century:</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">Agriculture: http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/63863482</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">Energy: http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/12281781</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">Water: http://www.britishnewspaperarchive.co.uk/search/results/1900-01-01/1909-12-31?contenttype=article&basicsearch=drought africa&anysearch=drought africa&frontpage=false&sortorder=score</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">Public Health: http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/24841602</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">Tourism: http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/69918661</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">Transportation: http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/56724650</span></div>
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<br /></div>the little skeptichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16717535560369820057noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6768649982329793651.post-50898631766512104862012-02-04T18:27:00.001-08:002012-02-04T18:28:41.790-08:00A warped view<br />
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This letter left on the cutting room floor at The Age...</div>
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Dear Editor,</div>
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If Clive Hamilton and others on the loony left are so concerned about Gina Rinehart influencing editorial direction at Fairfax (Mining in a new vein, 2/2), perhaps they should dig deep into their own pockets, put their combined money where their mouth is, and get Clive a seat on the board. However, given that no one on the loony left has any entrepreneurial nous, relying as they do on government handouts of one sort or another, perhaps Clive can just organise a suspension of democracy, ban Gina from<span style="color: #383838; font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px;"> Fairfax and in the process stop anyone else from thinking anything that conflicts with Hamilton's own </span>warped world view.</div>the little skeptichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16717535560369820057noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6768649982329793651.post-56878319461726874602011-11-25T20:31:00.001-08:002011-11-25T20:36:47.072-08:00Snippets from Climategate 2.0Some snippets with commentary from the most recent batch of Climategate emails.<br />
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<b>1. Email exchange between Phil Jones and Journalist. Jones answers in italics.</b><br />
<br />One of your speciality is paleoclimatology. It is necessary to study the dinosaur age to be able to predict the near future or which is the most outstanding period for
studying? <div>
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<i> No! The only recent period that is relevant for the future is the last 2000 years. For
earlier periods back to the dinosaurs, the boundary conditions were different. The amount
of day hours at different latitudes changes enough prior to 2000 years ago. Back with the
dinosaurs the continents were in different positions.</i></div>
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<a href="http://di2.nu/foia/foia2011/mail/2740.txt">http://di2.nu/foia/foia2011/mail/2740.txt</a></div>
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Seems James E. Hansen and Makiko Sato would disagree!</div>
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<a href="http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2011/20110118_MilankovicPaper.pdf">Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change</a></div>
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<i><br /></i></div>the little skeptichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16717535560369820057noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6768649982329793651.post-65604397030926598812011-11-17T10:30:00.001-08:002011-11-17T10:33:47.606-08:00Planting the seeds of innovation in the Bureaucracies of today is a sure way to sprout the weeds of the tomorrow.This letter left on the cutting room floor at the Australian....<br />
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Dear Editor,<br />
Bjorn Lomborg suggests spending a $100 billion a year on research into making renewables cost competitive with fossil fuels (<a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/opinion/carbon-tax-a-costly-feel-good-gesture-that-wont-reduce-emissions/story-e6frgd0x-1226197203654">Carbon tax a costly feel-good gesture that won't reduce emissions</a>. 17/11). While I am supportive of the concept, and it makes much more sense than the government's economy destroying carbon tax; I can't help but be concerned that the offer of a large, long lived, cash cow and the prospect of permanent research jobs would only serve to create a bureaucracy that would stifle creativity and delay the great leap forward. Just look at the way climate science has hopelessly stumbled in recent years in explaining the travesty of the world's missing warming for instance, despite a healthy investment of tax payers dollars. So, rather than pump $100 billion into a bloated system every year, year in - year out, and risk a drawn out process of invention, why not offer a one off cash prize of $100 billion to the successful individual or consortium who delivers the breakthrough? Planting the seeds of innovation in the Bureaucracies of today is a sure way to sprout the weeds of the tomorrow.<br />
<img src="https://mail.google.com/mail/images/cleardot.gif" />the little skeptichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16717535560369820057noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6768649982329793651.post-49744578770108093962011-10-28T12:29:00.000-07:002011-10-28T12:34:59.812-07:00Sherwood's Forest<span class="Apple-style-span" style="background-color: white;"></span><br />
This Letter missed the cut at The Oz, in reply to an Op Ed piece by <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/opinion/why-experts-refuse-to-debate-climate-science/story-e6frgd0x-1226178807693">Steven Sherwood</a><br /><br />Dear Editor,<div>
That Steven Sherwood is unable to condense 50 years of investigation, paid for by billions of dollars of public research money (that may have been better spent elsewhere), into a succinct argument in favour of catastrophic man made warming is one of the clearest admissions of failure I have seen to date from a working climate scientist (Why experts refuse to debate climate science 28/10). Surprisingly Sherwood wants to debate the science in a court room, but he should know that debate in science is not like debate in the legal system as unlike a barrister, a scientist with integrity would give all the information, not just the information that leads to a judgment in one direction or another. A scientist with integrity does not pick cherries!<br /><br /><br />In the face of such inherent uncertainty, and apparent deep confusion about the manner in which science should be debated, the policy response favoured by the current government and the case for urgent, dramatic action being promulgated by activist scientists, politicians and our under qualified climate commissioners, is looking decidedly premature and lacking in solid foundation. In the long run I have faith that the scientific method, in the absence of political interference, will provide a definitive answer that will provide scientists convincing evidence about the future behaviour of the climate system, on which sound public policy might be developed and enacted. However until then, rather than risk a misdiagnosis and subsequent improper treatment of the problem, a prudent response is required that does not kill the patient. Such a response might involve taking measures to mitigate against current known weather extremes, and enacting policy to remove nonsensical political barriers to competing base load electricity generation such as thorium based nuclear reactors. <br /><br /><br /></div>the little skeptichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16717535560369820057noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6768649982329793651.post-82958196156417164332011-08-17T18:33:00.000-07:002011-08-17T18:37:40.229-07:00The Prince of Precaution<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1-hgPnld_fa_EVoxq6oITd5w7JGCt8cjjKveDjaRDhBAsL-bixr-GpIOHNyP-Dz0yQL03S_6ai9dmjE9WD35BwQuNF5-keXZ0JCxLn23uNpgsgPLgl2FZI6e5nikdBRJ3U7uBeygoBDM/s1600/BTLM_titlepage.jpg" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 226px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1-hgPnld_fa_EVoxq6oITd5w7JGCt8cjjKveDjaRDhBAsL-bixr-GpIOHNyP-Dz0yQL03S_6ai9dmjE9WD35BwQuNF5-keXZ0JCxLn23uNpgsgPLgl2FZI6e5nikdBRJ3U7uBeygoBDM/s320/BTLM_titlepage.jpg" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5642003957154980498" /></a><div>The current print run of The Prince of Precaution has sold out. You can still view it on<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-SGsPCJCpow"> You Tube.</a></div><div>
<br /></div><div>More copies once orders start to mount up!</div>the little skeptichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16717535560369820057noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6768649982329793651.post-90773040454080220132011-04-06T18:00:00.000-07:002011-04-06T18:08:31.210-07:00find truth in the trends<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggHnXRTRG1jOKHysgLTsj0jVUYgqrSVAYyzGVqRYfrs9dUWB8IyO5pQDWFWFgOGDlVvz2_6jhJriBjRdU1kI0XAfanlWms8BBuB-jWuSYUZ92wxcfcDcGf51zMDfie7-UqG0AXu8zY8YU/s1600/figure+1a.jpg" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 198px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggHnXRTRG1jOKHysgLTsj0jVUYgqrSVAYyzGVqRYfrs9dUWB8IyO5pQDWFWFgOGDlVvz2_6jhJriBjRdU1kI0XAfanlWms8BBuB-jWuSYUZ92wxcfcDcGf51zMDfie7-UqG0AXu8zY8YU/s320/figure+1a.jpg" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5592641338909672162" /></a><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 23px; " ><em style="border-top-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; font-family: inherit; font-style: italic; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; outline-width: 0px; outline-style: initial; outline-color: initial; padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; "><b>Thus, although poor station quality might affect absolute temperature, it does not appear to affect trends, and for global warming estimates, the trend is what is important.</b></em></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" ><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; line-height: 23px; "><em style="border-top-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; font-family: inherit; font-style: italic; font-weight: inherit; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; outline-width: 0px; outline-style: initial; outline-color: initial; padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; "></em></span><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_A._Muller">Prof. Richard Muller</a> <span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; line-height: 23px; ">(Testimony at the U.S. House of Representatives Hearing on <em style="border-top-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; font-family: inherit; font-style: italic; font-weight: inherit; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; outline-width: 0px; outline-style: initial; outline-color: initial; padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; "><a href="http://science.house.gov/hearing/full-committee-hearing-climate-change">Climate Change: Examining the Processes Used to Create Science and Policy</a> 31/3/2011)</em></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; line-height: 23px; "><span style="border-top-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; outline-width: 0px; outline-style: initial; outline-color: initial; padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; " >Some interesting trends above, which one best represents temperature in the vicinity of Melbourne?</span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; line-height: 23px; "><span style="border-top-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; outline-width: 0px; outline-style: initial; outline-color: initial; padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; " ><br /></span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 23px;"><br /></span></span></div>the little skeptichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16717535560369820057noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6768649982329793651.post-83441155187421892522011-03-03T02:14:00.000-08:002011-03-03T02:15:20.137-08:00Seems reasonable to ask the question<span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; "><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; ">From the cutting room floor at the Sydney Morning Herald...</span></div>Dear Editor,<br />Daniel Bray (Climate change is real. Let's deal with it, 3/3) asks the question: <i>Given the long-standing scientific consensus, why is climate change an unreasoning issue?</i> Perhaps the fact that the observed warming trend (0.1 degrees Celsius per decade) is well below IPCC projections that range up to 0.6 degrees per decade has something to do with it? As current trends clearly falsify the doomsday projections of catastrophic warming derived from the climate models, it is not at all unreasonable to ask what all the fuss is about. </span>the little skeptichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16717535560369820057noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6768649982329793651.post-65644940065538306172011-01-16T11:30:00.001-08:002011-01-16T11:33:14.659-08:00stop the floods, drive an SUV<span class="Apple-style-span"><span><div style="border-collapse: collapse; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: separate; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 17px; ">The following letter left on the cutting room floor at the Sydney Morning Herald:</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" ><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17px;"><br /></span></span></div><div style="border-collapse: collapse; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; ">Dear Editor,</div><span class="Apple-style-span" ><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse;">Penny Sackett blames the current floods on global warming (</span></span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" ><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><a href="http://www.smh.com.au/national/nature-raw-in-tooth-and-claw-20110114-19r9e.html">Nature raw in tooth and claw</a></span></span><span style="border-collapse: collapse; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; "><span style="border-collapse: collapse; ">, 15/1). That may be the case, for based on BOM records the Brisbane River experienced a major flood 8 times between 1841 and 1900, and only 2 major floods in the 111 years since, including the current one. It seems one of the consequences of global warming is actually a reduction in the frequency of major flood events! </span></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 20px; border-collapse: collapse; font-size: 13px; ">A return to a natural cycle of </span><span style="border-collapse: collapse; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; "><span style="border-collapse: collapse; ">8 major floods per century would be devastating, so in order to further reduce flood frequency perhaps the Australian Government could provide every Australian with a gas guzzling SUV and hydrocarbon credits and commission a few more coal fired power plants. As Penny Sackett says "</span></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 20px; border-collapse: collapse; font-size: 13px; ">We owe that to those who are feeling the effects of nature's force this summer." </span></span>the little skeptichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16717535560369820057noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6768649982329793651.post-89323555587831356092010-12-08T11:50:00.000-08:002010-12-08T11:56:17.080-08:00Mug PuntThe following letter left on the cutting room floor at the Sydney Morning Herald:<div><br /></div><div><p class="MsoNormal">Dear Editor,</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Like a mug punter Barry Jones wants us to take a huge gamble on climate change “action” without having read the form or seen the horses in the mounting yard (<a href="http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/doing-nothing-on-climate-is-a-fools-wager-20101206-18msy.html">Doing nothing on climate is a fool's wager</a>, 8/12). Barry says human suffering will be averted if we take action, but a link between climate disasters and CO<sub>2</sub> has failed to emerge<a style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1" href="file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/Marc/My%20Documents/Dear%20Editor.doc#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" title=""><sup><span style="mso-special-character: footnote"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><sup><span style="font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:EN-US;mso-fareast-language:EN-US;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA">[1]</span></sup><!--[endif]--></span></sup></a>. He claims little will be lost if the “problem” abates for other reasons, failing to see how those wasted billions could have been more wisely spent. He mistakes prudent “inaction” for stupidity at a time when the worst case scenario is but a chimera in the digital fantasy of falsified climate models<a style="mso-footnote-id:ftn2" href="file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/Marc/My%20Documents/Dear%20Editor.doc#_ftn2" name="_ftnref2" title=""><sup><span style="mso-special-character:footnote"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><sup><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:EN-US;mso-fareast-language:EN-US; mso-bidi-language:AR-SA">[2]</span></sup><!--[endif]--></span></sup></a>.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>Lastly, he suggests that if there is no disaster it will be through luck, rather than astute judgement to side-step the mistaken missives of a politicized science. </p> <p class="MsoNormal">At this stage a wait and see approach on climate still makes more sense than Barry’s bet on a well flogged horse on its way to the knackery.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-special-character:footnote"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:EN-US;mso-fareast-language:EN-US; mso-bidi-language:AR-SA">[1]</span></span> Eric Neumayer and Fabian Barthel, <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VFV-51H009Y-1/2/80b427fe8ed1a77cfed562862fcc94db">Normalizing economic loss from natural disasters: A global analysis</a>, Global Environmental Change, In Press, Corrected Proof, Available online 18 November 2010, ISSN 0959-3780, DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.10.004.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal">2 A comparison of local and aggregated climate model outputs with observed data Anagnostopoulos, G. G. , Koutsoyiannis, D. , Christofides, A. , Efstratiadis, A. and Mamassis, N. ‘A comparison of local and aggregated climate model outputs with observed data’,Hydrological Sciences Journal, 55:7, 1094 – 1110</p> <div style="mso-element:footnote-list"><br /><div style="mso-element:footnote" id="ftn2"> </div></div></div>the little skeptichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16717535560369820057noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6768649982329793651.post-75821983800493305682010-06-15T15:37:00.000-07:002010-06-15T16:06:51.465-07:00Butterfly emergence study- a case of Cargo Cult Science?<div>A recent journal article titled "<a href="http://rsbl.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/early/2010/06/07/rsbl.2010.0053">Early emergence in a butterfly causally linked to anthropogenic warming</a>" published online by Biology Letters claimed to have linked a change in butterfly emergence with temperature changes caused by increased greenhouse gas emissions. A comment on the article now posted by Biology Letters (<a href="http://rsbl.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/early/2010/06/07/rsbl.2010.0053.short/reply#roybiolett_el_31">HERE</a>) shows the methodology and results are unfounded, the study could not be repeated. We wonder if the media will spend as much energy reporting on this damaging critique as it spent enthusiastically promoting the findings of the original paper.</div><div><br /></div>In his famous Caltech speech "<a href="http://calteches.library.caltech.edu/51/02/CargoCult.pdf">Cargo Cult Science</a>" the late <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Feynman">Richard Fynman</a> stated:<div><i>"We've learned from experience that the truth will out. Other experimenters will repeat your experiment and find out whether you were wrong or right. Nature's phenomena will agree or they'll disagree with your theory. And, although you may gain some temporary fame and excitement, you will not gain a good reputation as a scientist if you haven't tried to be very careful in this kind of work. And it's this type of integrity, this kind of care not to fool yourself, that is missing to a large extent in much of the research in Cargo Cult Science."</i></div><div><i><br /></i></div><div>With the <a href="http://rsbl.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/early/2010/06/07/rsbl.2010.0053.short/reply#roybiolett_el_31">truth</a> buried deeply in the servers of Biology Letters it appears the butterfly emergence study joins others that have all the hallmarks of the Cargo Cult that Feynman so eloquently described. </div>the little skeptichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16717535560369820057noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6768649982329793651.post-28828350931018446592010-05-10T02:04:00.000-07:002010-05-10T02:09:28.260-07:00Ignore the evidence at our peril<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; border-collapse: collapse; "><div>Unpublished letter to the Sydney Morning Herald, sent 10 May 2010.</div><div><br /></div><div>If Penny Wong, Kurt Lambeck and David Karoly want evidence <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/climate-scientists-cross-with-abbott-for-taking-christs-name-in-vain-20100509-ulqt.html">(Climate scientists cross with Abbott for taking Christ's name in vain</a>, 10/5) to suggest it was hotter 2000 years ago, they can find just one example, of many, in a recent article titled "<a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v461/n7262/full/nature08355.html">Holocene thinning of the Greenland ice sheet</a>" published in Nature in 2009. The article by Bo Vinther of the Niels Bohr Institute in Copenhagen and colleagues uses oxygen Isotope data to reconstruct temperatures <wbr>over Greenland through the Holocene. Not only does the Vinther data confirm the presence of the rather "toasty" Holocene Climate Optimum, it also reveals numerous warm pulses when temperatures were also higher than present. These include the Minoan Warm Period (<span style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; line-height: 16px; ">1450–1300 BC)<span style="font-family: arial; line-height: normal; ">, the Roman Warm Period (<span style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; line-height: 16px; ">250–0 BC)<span style="font-family: arial; line-height: normal; ">, discussed with students by Tony Abbott, and the Medieval Warm Period (<span style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; line-height: 16px; ">800–1100AD) <span style="font-family: arial; line-height: normal; ">that the IPCC attempted to whitewash from history with its infamous hockey stick graph. </span></span></span></span></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; line-height: 16px; "><span style="font-family: arial; line-height: normal; "><span style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; line-height: 16px; "><span style="font-family: arial; line-height: normal; "><span style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; line-height: 16px; "><span style="font-family: arial; line-height: normal; ">In developing policy to deal with future climate change Penny Wong should note that the long term temperature trend in the Vinther data is downwards.</span></span></span></span></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; line-height: 16px; "><span style="font-family: arial; line-height: normal; "><span style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; line-height: 16px; "><span style="font-family: arial; line-height: normal; "><span style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; line-height: 16px; "><span style="font-family: arial; line-height: normal; "><br /></span></span></span></span></span></span></div></span>the little skeptichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16717535560369820057noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6768649982329793651.post-67418853330075979642010-02-17T18:16:00.000-08:002010-02-17T18:18:04.173-08:00Do they have any journos there?<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; border-collapse: collapse; "><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; border-collapse: collapse; ">Unpublished letter to the Sydney Morning Herald </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; border-collapse: collapse; "><br /></span></div>British climategate scientist Dr Phil Jones has revealed in an interview with the BBC that the world has not warmed since 1995; d<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; ">ebate over Medieval Warm Period is not settled; the rates of warming from 1860-1880, 1910-1940 and 1975-1998 were statistically identical meaning the current rate of warming is not unprecedented; and the world has been cooling since <span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; "><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; "><span style="font-size: small; ">January 2002 at a rate of </span></span><span style="border-collapse: collapse; line-height: 18px; "><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; "><span style="font-size: small; ">-0.12C per decade<span style="border-collapse: separate; font-family: arial; line-height: normal; ">. Will this make it past the SMH's climate alarmist news filters, or will SMH readers be forced to turn to Rupert Murdoch to find out about it? God knows hell will freeze over before our Auntie says anything.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span>the little skeptichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16717535560369820057noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6768649982329793651.post-19468387909346678882010-02-12T14:10:00.000-08:002010-02-12T14:12:45.737-08:00Losing his religion<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; border-collapse: collapse; "><span style="font-family:arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><div>Unpublished letter to Editor of The Australian</div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; border-collapse: collapse; "><span style="font-family:arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>Dear Editor,</span><div><span style="font-family:arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">The Prime Minister should be congratulated for his grand plan to create a "scientifically engaged" Australia by</span><span style="line-height: 20px; "><span style="font-family:arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"> "catapulting science into classrooms, boardrooms and lounge rooms" </span><span style="line-height: normal; "><span style="font-family:arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">(It's the science country, 9/2). But why stop there? How about catapulting the same critical thinking into the churches, mosques, synagogues and temples? What's he scared of...losing his religion? </span></span></span></div><div><span style="line-height: 20px; "><span style="line-height: normal; "><span style="font-family:arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Comment: A government supporting critical thinking...now that would be something!</span></div></span>the little skeptichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16717535560369820057noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6768649982329793651.post-6045247815635066842010-02-09T12:27:00.000-08:002010-02-09T12:34:41.563-08:00So the PM wants un-sceptical scientists?<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; border-collapse: collapse; "><span style="font-family:arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><div>Unpublished letter to The Australian, sent 9/2/2010</div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; border-collapse: collapse; "><span style="font-family:arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>Dear Editor,</span><div><span style="font-family:arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">It's great to see that the Rudd Government has outlined a grand plan to create a "scientifically engaged" Australia that will be</span><span style="line-height: 20px; "><span style="font-family:arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"> "catapulting science into classrooms, boardrooms and lounge rooms" </span><span style="line-height: normal; "><span style="font-family:arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">(<a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/its-the-science-country/story-e6frg6nf-1225828071515">It's the science country</a>, 9/2). But given the Prime Minister's denouncement of scepticism, so critical to good science, in his <a href="http://www.pm.gov.au/node/6305">speech to the Lowy Institute</a> last year, (<a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/rudd-dares-turnbull-on-ets/story-e6frg6nf-1225795202435">Rudd dares Turnbull on ETS</a>, 7/11/2009) one wonders exactly what type of science will be catapulted? </span></span></span></div><div><span style="line-height: 20px; "><span style="line-height: normal; "><span style="font-family:arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div></span>the little skeptichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16717535560369820057noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6768649982329793651.post-58543976845724250042010-02-04T16:03:00.000-08:002010-02-04T16:08:06.048-08:00"Buy Time"Occasionally amidst the chaotic hyperbole of the climate change debate a lone voice of reason can be heard above the din. Yesterday it came from former ALP minister Gary Johns who condensed the politician's job in the face of scientific uncertainty on climate change to two simple words: "buy time" (<a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/dont-count-your-trees-forests-arent-that-green/story-e6frg6zo-1225826508034">Don't count your trees, forests aren't that green</a>, The Australian 4/2).<br /><br />In contrast our current Government and the Opposition leap blindly over the barricades, chasing phantoms yet to crystallise from the miasma. When these demons finally coalesce, sometime in the distant future, one only hopes that our leaders pre-emptively left home with the right tools for the job, and not with a bag full of uncircumscribed programmatic specificity.the little skeptichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16717535560369820057noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6768649982329793651.post-45415656963510630022010-01-26T14:09:00.001-08:002010-01-26T14:11:45.087-08:00IPCC research model promotes mediocrityUnpublished letter to the Sydney Morning Herald<br /><br />Dear Editor,<br />The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has failed dismally in providing conclusive scientific evidence that humans are having a dangerous impact on the climate. After more than 20 years of research and 10s of billions dollars spent, the best reason the IPCC can offer to justify radical reductions in CO2 emissions remains the nonscientific axiom: the Precautionary Principal. Revelations contained in climate-gate, glacier-gate (Storm brews over glacial blunder, SMH 25/1), and with more errors and misjudgments in the IPCC's latest assessment report likely to follow, indicate the IPCC research model is prone to mistakes, subject to confirmation bias and is too open to political influence.<br /><br />It's time for world governments' to consider other scientific research models that yield more definitive answers required by policy makers. History has shown that a competitive, rather than consensual, approach to undertaking research is more likely to bring better results, faster. The Space Race in the 1960s and the recent success of the Human Genome project are both testament to the benefits of intensely competitive research environments that fast tracked major scientific and technological breakthroughs. If the world wants to understand the climate system then we need a "Climate Race" not the inefficient, mediocre, committee driven methods that characterise the IPCC.<br /><br />All is not wasted however as the IPCC consensus model will provide a useful case study for future investigators looking at how science should not be done.<br /><br />Similar sentiments published here:<br /><a href="http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/letters/index.php/theaustralian/comments/ipcc_climate_research_model_shown_to_be_faulty">http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/letters/index.php/theaustralian/comments/ipcc_climate_research_model_shown_to_be_faulty</a>the little skeptichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16717535560369820057noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6768649982329793651.post-7471414321026754092009-12-17T15:13:00.000-08:002009-12-17T15:14:35.443-08:00Lachlan River Valley - things have been worse.The Sydney Morning Herald recently ran a series of articles on the perilous state of the Lachlan River Valley in central western NSW (<a href="http://www.smh.com.au/environment/water-issues/water-crisis-in-west-as-lachlan-river-runs-dry-20091023-hdce.html">Water crisis in west as Lachlan River runs dry</a>, SMH 24/10; <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/environment/rivers-dams-fail-lachlan-valley-towns-20091125-jrwn.html">Rivers, dams fail Lachlan Valley towns</a>, SMH 26/11 and <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/environment/everythings-dried-up-and-communities-begin-to-crack-20091127-jwww.html">Everything’s dried up and communities beginning to crack</a>, SMH, 28/11).<br /><br />While not stated, the implication seemed to be that the current state of the river was unprecedented. Having worked in the area, mapping the geology in 2001 I was slightly suspicious of these headlines and decided to put them to the test.<br /><br />This has been made much easier thanks to the work of the National Library in Canberra. A search of the National Library’s <a href="http://newspapers.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/home">Australian Newspapers online database</a>, that contains digitised copies of Australian newspapers dating back into the early 1800s, found numerous mentions of past droughts including the intriguing letter to the editor of The Sydney Herald (the for-runner to the Sydney Morning Herald), re-printed below, that suggests things were much more perilous in past times. Indications that Lake Cargelligo actually dried out, prior to extensive land clearing and with CO2 levels much less than they are now, suggests that the role of natural weather cycles has been overlooked as an important factor in controlling water flows down the Lachlan. <br /><br />While our political leaders are running around in circles searching for a political solution to the so called climate crisis in Copenhagen this voice from Australia’s colonial era serves as a timely reminder that when it comes to the weather, it goes around in circles as well, just a little more slowly.<br /><br />The Sydney Herald Wednesday 17 April, 1839<br />Original Correspondence<br />To the Editor of the Sydney Herald.<br />SIR,─Having heard a great deal of the fertile banks of the Lachlan River, I left Sydney in the beginning of February, passing through the districts of Argyle and King, to the Narraway River.<br />The road from Sydney was exceedingly dusty; the water mid feed scarce on the road ; so much so, that parties, to prevent their horse-team from starving, ripped open their straw beds and gave the straw to the horses. In the neighbourhood of Bunowbunow, (the lands of Messrs. Macarthur and McAlister) and from there to Wheeo, the property of Mr. Shepherd, where tolerable good old grass is to be met with, water is very scarce, and many cattle died in water-holes.<br />Down the Narraway River the water is scarce; the holes dangerous for cattle, the grass scarce, and on passing the Borrower no water to give the horses, nor grass to be found. Came to the Lachlan, below a junction of the Burrower─ no water or grass, the head of the river being sandy and level.<br />The cattle on the estates of Messrs. Wentworth, Fulton, Redfern, Rankin, and many others, on the upper parts of the Lachlan, are actually starving for want of water and grass. For many miles together the country wears the same dreary appearance; little grass, and less water. For 80 miles down, after which the River becomes narrow and deep, with here and there a deep water- hole; the grass begins to improve, and the, cattle obtain better pasture. The country on the bank of the River for 100 miles down, improves in appearance; large Plains, with a few trees dispersed on different parts; the water still scarce but the feed good. Cattle stations are fixed on the bank of the River, from one to seven miles apart, as water-holes may suit. It is a rule that the River shall be the boundary, and it is common for stations to be placed opposite each other. The whole of the country for l8 miles down the River, was taken up by Bathurst gentry ; latterly Mr. Cartwright, from Bland Plains, went below all with cattle; since which Mr. Shepherd has gone below him; and more than likely there are others below him by this time, as numbers of herds were on their way down the River ─ parties finding it impossible to support their stock on their old runs. The country on the Lachlan is not capable of supporting many cattle, the Plains being thinly grassed, and there being but little forest land, as also very little water.<br />At present the country is perfectly dry and sound, but should there come heavy rains most of it will be under water. Major Mitchell's track is plain, he kept near the bank of the River as far as I saw; the Lake (as called Cagillowgo), is dry, and nothing but a morass, great quantities of salt rush and a scrub, that is to be found near the salt water, grows on the Plains. The Stockmen and others are in a miserable condition; no sugar, no tea, very little bread, and less meat, the time for supplies being up, and proprietors of stock not having sent their half-yearly supplies. Great talk was about the Blacks. I was pleasingly surprised to find them harmless, peaceable, industrious, and a working people; great numbers are to be seen on the River; at the stations it is common to have one or two men tailing or shepherding a herd of cattle, the women grind, bring water, and do odd work. A bad system is allowed on the Lachlan, as well as in many parts of the Colony, that is, proprietors paying their free men in stock, and allowing them to run with their herd; that system has been a great cause of so much cattle-stealing. A Stockman seeing a good unbranded calf in the bush takes it home and puts his own brand on, being in so distant a part: he can do it with impunity as the proprietor so seldom sees his cattle. A case somewhat relevant occurred the other day, Mr. McKensey has had a free man, a stock-keeper who had cattle. When his master went to inspect his own cattle, he saw a calf with the Stockman's brand on sucking one of his own cows. The man was taken into custody, but on his way to Bathurst made his escape. It is high time that masters do away with the system of paying men in cattle, or allowing them to have cattle. They would find they would gain by giving more wages, (if such be required) rather than pay in stock. The country generally, in the neighbourhood of the Lachlan, is suffering much from the drought, the trees of the forest are withered, and great numbers are dying along acres together for want of moisture. Cattle are to be seen in almost every water-hole, and what is worse the traveller suffers greatly from a similar cause. One of Doctor Ramsay's men, passing in company with a team from one station across the country to the Lachlan, left the dray in search of water, and has not been heard of since. Strict search was made for the unfortunate man, but no remains could be found of him; he was a stranger, and it is supposed that he missed the dray, and perished for want of water.<br />A TRAVELLER.<br />April 5, 1839.<br /><br />References<br />Original Article available from:<br /><a href="http://newspapers.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/12857693">http://newspapers.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/12857693</a><br /><br />SMH story: Rivers, Dams Fail Lachlan River towns 26/11/2009 <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/environment/rivers-dams-fail-lachlan-valley-towns-20091125-jrwn.html">http://www.smh.com.au/environment/rivers-dams-fail-lachlan-valley-towns-20091125-jrwn.html</a><br /><br />SMH Story: Water crisis in west as Lachlan River runs dry, 24/10/2009<br />http://www.smh.com.au/environment/water-issues/water-crisis-in-west-as-lachlan-river-runs-dry-20091023-hdce.html<br /><br />SMH Story: Everything’s dried up and communities beginning to crack, SMH, 28/11<br />http://www.smh.com.au/environment/everythings-dried-up-and-communities-begin-to-crack-20091127-jwww.html<br /><br />National Library Online Database<br /><a href="http://newspapers.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/home">http://newspapers.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/home</a>the little skeptichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16717535560369820057noreply@blogger.com2