Lachlan River Valley - things have been worse.

The Sydney Morning Herald recently ran a series of articles on the perilous state of the Lachlan River Valley in central western NSW (Water crisis in west as Lachlan River runs dry, SMH 24/10; Rivers, dams fail Lachlan Valley towns, SMH 26/11 and Everything’s dried up and communities beginning to crack, SMH, 28/11).

While not stated, the implication seemed to be that the current state of the river was unprecedented. Having worked in the area, mapping the geology in 2001 I was slightly suspicious of these headlines and decided to put them to the test.

This has been made much easier thanks to the work of the National Library in Canberra. A search of the National Library’s Australian Newspapers online database, that contains digitised copies of Australian newspapers dating back into the early 1800s, found numerous mentions of past droughts including the intriguing letter to the editor of The Sydney Herald (the for-runner to the Sydney Morning Herald), re-printed below, that suggests things were much more perilous in past times. Indications that Lake Cargelligo actually dried out, prior to extensive land clearing and with CO2 levels much less than they are now, suggests that the role of natural weather cycles has been overlooked as an important factor in controlling water flows down the Lachlan.

While our political leaders are running around in circles searching for a political solution to the so called climate crisis in Copenhagen this voice from Australia’s colonial era serves as a timely reminder that when it comes to the weather, it goes around in circles as well, just a little more slowly.

The Sydney Herald Wednesday 17 April, 1839
Original Correspondence
To the Editor of the Sydney Herald.
SIR,─Having heard a great deal of the fertile banks of the Lachlan River, I left Sydney in the beginning of February, passing through the districts of Argyle and King, to the Narraway River.
The road from Sydney was exceedingly dusty; the water mid feed scarce on the road ; so much so, that parties, to prevent their horse-team from starving, ripped open their straw beds and gave the straw to the horses. In the neighbourhood of Bunowbunow, (the lands of Messrs. Macarthur and McAlister) and from there to Wheeo, the property of Mr. Shepherd, where tolerable good old grass is to be met with, water is very scarce, and many cattle died in water-holes.
Down the Narraway River the water is scarce; the holes dangerous for cattle, the grass scarce, and on passing the Borrower no water to give the horses, nor grass to be found. Came to the Lachlan, below a junction of the Burrower─ no water or grass, the head of the river being sandy and level.
The cattle on the estates of Messrs. Wentworth, Fulton, Redfern, Rankin, and many others, on the upper parts of the Lachlan, are actually starving for want of water and grass. For many miles together the country wears the same dreary appearance; little grass, and less water. For 80 miles down, after which the River becomes narrow and deep, with here and there a deep water- hole; the grass begins to improve, and the, cattle obtain better pasture. The country on the bank of the River for 100 miles down, improves in appearance; large Plains, with a few trees dispersed on different parts; the water still scarce but the feed good. Cattle stations are fixed on the bank of the River, from one to seven miles apart, as water-holes may suit. It is a rule that the River shall be the boundary, and it is common for stations to be placed opposite each other. The whole of the country for l8 miles down the River, was taken up by Bathurst gentry ; latterly Mr. Cartwright, from Bland Plains, went below all with cattle; since which Mr. Shepherd has gone below him; and more than likely there are others below him by this time, as numbers of herds were on their way down the River ─ parties finding it impossible to support their stock on their old runs. The country on the Lachlan is not capable of supporting many cattle, the Plains being thinly grassed, and there being but little forest land, as also very little water.
At present the country is perfectly dry and sound, but should there come heavy rains most of it will be under water. Major Mitchell's track is plain, he kept near the bank of the River as far as I saw; the Lake (as called Cagillowgo), is dry, and nothing but a morass, great quantities of salt rush and a scrub, that is to be found near the salt water, grows on the Plains. The Stockmen and others are in a miserable condition; no sugar, no tea, very little bread, and less meat, the time for supplies being up, and proprietors of stock not having sent their half-yearly supplies. Great talk was about the Blacks. I was pleasingly surprised to find them harmless, peaceable, industrious, and a working people; great numbers are to be seen on the River; at the stations it is common to have one or two men tailing or shepherding a herd of cattle, the women grind, bring water, and do odd work. A bad system is allowed on the Lachlan, as well as in many parts of the Colony, that is, proprietors paying their free men in stock, and allowing them to run with their herd; that system has been a great cause of so much cattle-stealing. A Stockman seeing a good unbranded calf in the bush takes it home and puts his own brand on, being in so distant a part: he can do it with impunity as the proprietor so seldom sees his cattle. A case somewhat relevant occurred the other day, Mr. McKensey has had a free man, a stock-keeper who had cattle. When his master went to inspect his own cattle, he saw a calf with the Stockman's brand on sucking one of his own cows. The man was taken into custody, but on his way to Bathurst made his escape. It is high time that masters do away with the system of paying men in cattle, or allowing them to have cattle. They would find they would gain by giving more wages, (if such be required) rather than pay in stock. The country generally, in the neighbourhood of the Lachlan, is suffering much from the drought, the trees of the forest are withered, and great numbers are dying along acres together for want of moisture. Cattle are to be seen in almost every water-hole, and what is worse the traveller suffers greatly from a similar cause. One of Doctor Ramsay's men, passing in company with a team from one station across the country to the Lachlan, left the dray in search of water, and has not been heard of since. Strict search was made for the unfortunate man, but no remains could be found of him; he was a stranger, and it is supposed that he missed the dray, and perished for want of water.
A TRAVELLER.
April 5, 1839.

References
Original Article available from:
http://newspapers.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/12857693

SMH story: Rivers, Dams Fail Lachlan River towns 26/11/2009 http://www.smh.com.au/environment/rivers-dams-fail-lachlan-valley-towns-20091125-jrwn.html

SMH Story: Water crisis in west as Lachlan River runs dry, 24/10/2009
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/water-issues/water-crisis-in-west-as-lachlan-river-runs-dry-20091023-hdce.html

SMH Story: Everything’s dried up and communities beginning to crack, SMH, 28/11
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/everythings-dried-up-and-communities-begin-to-crack-20091127-jwww.html

National Library Online Database
http://newspapers.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/home

Only certainty about the climate is that it will change.

Unpublished letter sent to the sydney Morning Herald 17/06

Matthew England (How noisy naysayers led Fielding on a false path, 17/6 http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/how-noisy-naysayers-led-fielding-on-to-false-path-20090616-cghf.html) takes great pains to explain one of the great contradictions of the theory of anthropogenic global warming: that global temperature has flat lined over the last decade despite constantly rising green house gas emissions. England rightly puts this down to natural variability in the climate system. He points to the warming trend revealed by surface temperature data over the last 150 years as evidence that the warming will continue and even accelerate. What he fails to to mention is that this temperature record is but a snap shot of global temperature that has varied more markedly over much longer time scales both up and down. For instance over the last 1000 years the earth has moved from relative warmth during the Medieval Warm Period to the relative cold of the Little Ice Age, intriguingly under virtually constant greenhouse gas concentrations. Modern temperature records begin during the later natural low point and it is little wonder that temperatures have risen since then as the earth has naturally warmed again. Likewise that we have seen a cluster of warmer years over the last decade is no mystery and merely reflects the fact that we started recording temperature accurately when the climate was much cooler.

One wonders if medieval weathermen were as concerned about climate change as we are or did they recognise the warming as a portent of better times to come that would eventually see the Vikings settle in Greenland, bring bumper crops to Europe and wine making to northern England?

Matthew England is right about one thing; change in the climate system will affect us all. However as there is little we can do about it we are better to spend our limited resources adapting to both positive and negative changes as they arise, rather than sit on our thrones by the sea shore and command the climate to stop. The only certainty about the climate is that it will change.

Sue climate scientists instead

Letter sent to Sydney Morning Herald 1 May 2009.

Dear Editor,
Prof David Karoly argues that coal companies could be exposed to legal action if the climate catastrophe predicted by IPCC computer models eventuates (Dear Coal plants, you’re doomed, 1/5). Spending our precious time, money and human resources tackling a natural climate cycle that ultimately we have no control over, sucks resources from other worthwhile projects such as research for cures for cancer, malaria and flu, reducing habitat destruction, deforestation and improving the standard of living in third world countries, etc. Will Prof Karoly be the one to explain this to the millions that could have been saved if we spend our resources stopping the unstoppable? On the flip side I guess, given the climate continues to ignore the models, those adversely affected could always sue Professor Karoly and other activitist scientists and former politicians who seem to have lost all objectivity on this issue.

IPCC: David Copperfield would be proud of you

Upnpublished letter to THE AUSTRALIAN 1 May 2009

Dear Editor,
The issue of certainty is central to the IPCC arguments for action on carbon emissions; if there is a lack of certainty then the need for urgent action is diminished. We often here from IPCC scientists that there is 95% certainty in the science of climate modelling. Yet when we look at the Radiative Forcing Components used in computer climate models reported by the IPCC in Assessment Report 4, the error for net anthropogenic forcing is a staggering 112.5%! Treatment of errors is part of the scientific process and it appears to be very poorly addressed and explained in IPCC reports.That the IPCC manages to turn a 112.5% error into 95% certainty is surely one of the greatest scientific tricks made on the public. David Copperfield would be proud of you, Richard Feynman would not.

Prince of Precaution in Space

Australia's most famous environmentalist, Tim Flannery, has lent his name to a scheme by the world's most infamous self-publicist, Richard Branson, to burn untold tonnes of greenhouse gases so rich people can become space tourists.
See SMH for full story HERE

I'm sure there's a new book in here somewhere...

IPCC process leaves door open to cherry-picking

From today's Australian newspaper by Marc Hendrickx:

IN his praise of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Peter Doherty (Letters, 22/4) ignores the fact that the IPCC process is dominated by a small clique of climate scientists who review their own work for inclusion in IPCC reports. This unusual process apparently overrides the generally accepted practice that peer review be conducted by a qualified, anonymous third party. I don’t imagine this sort of review process would be tolerated in the medical sciences. It hardly comprises an honest approach to science and leaves the door open to manipulation and cherry-picking of research results.
Another Nobel prize-winning scientist, American physicist Richard Feynman, described this sort of practice as “cargo cult science”—one that is missing “a kind of scientific integrity, a principle of scientific thought that corresponds to a kind of utter honesty”. As Feynman said, “The first principle (of science) is that you must not fool yourself—and you are the easiest person to fool.” The time for honesty and healthy self-scepticism from the IPCC is long overdue lest they continue to make fools of us all.


http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/letters/index.php/theaustralian/comments/ipcc_process_leaves_door_open_to_cherry_picking/

The Impish Professor's Cargo Cult

Coming soon from Little Skeptics Press

The Impish Professor's Cargo Cult
ISBN 978-0-9805943-4-8

Inspired by a Richard Feynman’s essay “Cargo Cult Science”
some extracts...

“In the South Seas there is a cargo cult of people. During the war they saw airplanes with lots of good materials, and they want the same thing to happen now. So they've arranged to make things like runways, to put fires along the sides of the runways, to make a wooden hut for a man to sit in, with two wooden pieces on his head to headphones and bars of bamboo sticking out like antennas -- he's the controller -- and they wait for the airplanes to land. They're doing everything right. The form is perfect. It looks exactly the way it looked before. But it doesn't work. No airplanes land. So I call these things cargo cult science, because they follow all the apparent precepts and forms of scientific investigation, but they're missing something essential, because the planes don't land.”

'But there is one feature I notice that is generally missing in cargo cult science. That is the idea that we all hope you have learned in studying science in school -- we never say explicitly what this is, but just hope that you catch on by all the examples of scientific investigation. It is interesting, therefore, to bring it out now and speak of it explicitly. It's a kind of scientific integrity, a principle of scientific thought that corresponds to a kind of utter honesty -- a kind of leaning over backwards. For example, if you're doing an experiment, you should report everything that you think might make it invalid -- not only what you think is right about it: other causes that could possibly explain your results; and things you thought of that you've eliminated by some other experiment, and how they worked -- to make sure the other fellow can tell they have been eliminated. "
"We've learned from experience that the truth will come out. Other experimenters will repeat your experiment and find out whether you were wrong or right. Nature's phenomena will agree or they'll disagree with your theory. And, although you may gain some temporary fame and excitement, you will not gain a good reputation as a scientist if you haven't tried to be very careful in this kind of work. And it's this type of integrity, this kind of care not to fool yourself, that is missing to a large extent in much of the research in cargo cult science. "

"For example, I was a little surprised when I was talking to a friend who was going to go on the radio. He does work on cosmology and astronomy, and he wondered how he would explain what the applications of his work were. "Well", I said, "there aren't any". He said, "Yes, but then we won't get support for more research of this kind". I think that's kind of dishonest. If you're representing yourself as a scientist, then you should explain to the layman what you're doing -- and if they don't support you under those circumstances, then that's their decision."

"In summary, the idea is to give all of the information to help others to judge the value of your contribution; not just the information that leads to judgement in one particular direction or another."

The IPCC is cargo cult science in action. The IPCC form looks perfect, they follow all the apparent precepts and forms of scientific investigation, it looks like science to journalists and is sold as such to the layman, but they're missing something essential, because while the cash certainly is raining in, the observations continue to disagree with the models. It's time the IPCC ended its Cargo Cult mentality!

see http://www.pd.infn.it/~loreti/science.html for full text of Feynman's essay.

Watch this space...