IPCC: David Copperfield would be proud of you

Upnpublished letter to THE AUSTRALIAN 1 May 2009

Dear Editor,
The issue of certainty is central to the IPCC arguments for action on carbon emissions; if there is a lack of certainty then the need for urgent action is diminished. We often here from IPCC scientists that there is 95% certainty in the science of climate modelling. Yet when we look at the Radiative Forcing Components used in computer climate models reported by the IPCC in Assessment Report 4, the error for net anthropogenic forcing is a staggering 112.5%! Treatment of errors is part of the scientific process and it appears to be very poorly addressed and explained in IPCC reports.That the IPCC manages to turn a 112.5% error into 95% certainty is surely one of the greatest scientific tricks made on the public. David Copperfield would be proud of you, Richard Feynman would not.