Tuesday, November 11, 2008

Climate models must be reliable!

Gavin Schmidt (Sydney Morning Herald Letters, 11/11-http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/letters/climate-doubts-based-on-shortterm-irrelevancies/2008/11/10/1226165474661.html) claims that the inability of climate models to predict the current hiatus in global warming is irrelevant. He is plainly wrong! The fact that climate models have been unable to reliably forecast what is now a decade long period of natural temperature stability does not bide well for their ability to extend these forecasts out to the end of the century. This fact is highly relevant to policy makers who are relying on these models to forecast future changes in climate and the effects of costly mitigation measures. If the models are wrong then what is the basis for the current crisis?

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